While the Bills’ slot receivers were certainly an issue last season, it was outside receiver Gabriel Davis (6) who was the biggest offender when it came to coughing up interceptions. Eliminating interceptions on shorter passes and passes to the middle of the field would do wonders for Allen’s MVP bid this season. The team clearly hopes that by installing a big-bodied, nimble tight end into their passing offense, they can move past the need for the smaller slot receivers that have struggled for them in the middle of the field. Almost all of those players operated at or near the line of scrimmage in 2022, and nearly all of them played in the slot or the middle of the field (where 7 of Allen’s interceptions occurred). That pick begins to make even more sense when you look at who Allen was targeting when he threw many of his interceptions: Dawson Knox (3), Cole Beasley (2), Isaiah McKenzie (2), Jamison Crowder (1), and James Cook (1). And Bills general manager Brandon Beane even said the team drafted him “ to solve the middle of the field” in his post-draft press conference.
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According to Pro Football Focus’ charting data, five of Allen’s interceptions last season came on passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.Īs we outlined in our piece on Kincaid’s prospects of winning the Offensive Rookie of the Year award, the 2023 first-round pick was a machine out of the slot for Utah in college. In drafting tight end Dalton Kincaid in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft, it looks like the Bills are taking steps to help stymie Allen’s interception production. It looks like he’ll need to trim that down in 2023 to garner serious attention as an MVP candidate. And of those seasons, only Mahomes – who has thrown 12 interceptions in each of his winning seasons – has thrown more than 8 picks.Īllen’s 2.2% interception rate isn’t too painful, but because of his passing volume, he has averaged a 17-game pace of 14 interceptions per year. Over the past seven seasons, MVP-winners have averaged just 7.7 interceptions in their award-winning years. The most glaring difference between Allen’s play and the play of previous winners has been Allen’s susceptibility to turnovers. In terms of sheer offensive output, not many guys in the entire league can compete with him. He has averaged another 121 rushes for 675 yards and 7 more scores on the ground in that time as well. It’s helpful that Allen has already been MVP-adjacent we won’t need to use too much imagination to envision a winning campaign.Īllen has averaged a 17-game pace of 4,591 passing yards, 37 passing scores, and 14 interceptions since his 2020 breakout. So, what exactly would an MVP season have to look like for Allen? Outlining an MVP Season Just based on that proximity, it’s not hard to envision him taking the leap in 2023. Allen has a legitimate chance to win the AP NFL MVP award this season, and his +700 number from the NFL MVP odds at FanDuel Sportsbook ties him with Mahomes and Joe Burrow as the favorites to take home the trophy by the season’s end.Īllen has been on the MVP periphery in recent years, garnering votes during the 20 seasons. His voluminous offensive output has yet to culminate in more than a couple of Pro Bowl nods, but that could change in 2023. He has been an offensive juggernaut recently. And, in that same stretch of time, Allen has rushed for more yards (1,946) than all three of those passers combined (1,118) and for just one fewer rushing touchdown than their collective total (21). Only Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, and Justin Herbert have produced more passing yards than Allen since that breakout. Following his breakout campaign in 2020, the Bills have become one of the best passing offenses across the entire league. Quarterback Josh Allen has been the driving force in the franchise’s resurgence. They have won at least 10 games in each of those seasons, been AFC East Champions in three straight years, and have been a mainstay in the playoffs during this run. The Buffalo Bills have been a team on the cusp of greatness over the past four seasons.
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